Manila Condo Prices Up 8.4% Year-on-Year, But Quarterly Growth Is Slowing

Residential condominium prices across Metro Manila rose 8.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to property consultancy data compiled through June 30 — the sharpest annual jump in three years. But the quarter-on-quarter figure tells a more cautious story: prices climbed just 1.1 percent from Q1 to Q2, the weakest sequential gain since late 2024.

That gap between the strong year-on-year number and the softer quarterly momentum matters now because it arrives at a pivotal moment for Filipino homebuyers. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas held its benchmark rate at 5.75 percent through June, and most bank mortgage desks in Makati and Ortigas are still pricing home loans above 7 percent annually. Buyers who were waiting for rate relief are running out of patience — and sellers know it.

Where Prices Moved — and Where They Stalled

Bonifacio Global City remained the priciest submarket in the metropolitan area, with mid-rise units along 5th Avenue and Kalayaan Avenue averaging PHP 215,000 per square meter in Q2, up from PHP 198,500 a year earlier. That 8.3-percent gain tracks close to the metro-wide average, suggesting BGC's premium has stabilised rather than stretched further. Rockwell Center in Makati posted a sharper 9.7-percent annual rise, with two-bedroom units in the Edades Tower corridor now regularly transacting above PHP 18 million — a ceiling that would have sounded optimistic eighteen months ago.

Quezon City told a different story. The Vertis North precinct near EDSA and Quezon Avenue recorded a more modest 5.2-percent year-on-year increase, and brokers working the Trinoma corridor say walk-in traffic dropped noticeably in May and June as the summer heat pushed prospective buyers toward online viewings instead. The Philippine Retirement Authority's expanded visa program, which drew roughly 4,200 foreign retirees into the market in the first half of 2026, has so far concentrated demand in Bay Area reclamation projects rather than northern Metro Manila.

Colliers Philippines pegged the overall Metro Manila residential vacancy rate at 14.8 percent at the end of June — unchanged from Q1 — a figure that explains why developers are not rushing to launch new towers despite the healthy annual price growth. SM Prime Holdings deferred two planned Pasay City residential towers to 2027, while Ayala Land's Alveo unit pushed the sales launch of a Pasig project from July to September, citing the need to let existing inventory absorb first.

What the Numbers Mean for Buyers and Sellers

The practical read: anyone who bought a BGC or Rockwell unit in Q2 2025 is sitting on a solid paper gain, but anyone hoping to flip within two quarters is dealing with thinner margins than the annual headline suggests. The 1.1-percent sequential increase barely covers the roughly 0.8-percent quarterly transaction costs — agent commissions, documentary stamp tax, and transfer fees — on a typical secondary-market deal.

For end-users, the window before any rate movement by the BSP looks increasingly like Q3 and into Q4. The central bank's next policy meeting falls on August 14. If the peso holds near the PHP 57-to-the-dollar level it occupied through most of June, analysts at BDO Unibank expect one 25-basis-point cut before year-end — enough to nudge mortgage rates toward the 6.5-percent range but not enough to dramatically expand the pool of qualified borrowers.

Buyers sitting on the fence in areas like Mandaluyong's Pioneer Woodlands strip or the Eastwood City corridor in Libis should weigh one concrete reality: the annual price gains recorded right now were built on Q2 2025 as a base — a quarter when the market was genuinely soft. That flattering comparison disappears in next year's data. The clock on the easy year-on-year numbers is already running.